Iran is Americas Middle East Anchor
For the past few decades American military operations have primarily been centered around the Middle East and fighting Islamic terror groups. America has changed the focus of itsmilitary activity, starting in 2011 when President Obama announced a foreign policy doctrine in Asia which has been call the Pacific Pivot. This renewed interest in Asia was an attempt to increase America’s influence in Asia economically, diplomatically, and militarily. This new foreign policy stance essentially asserted that America had control of almost the entire Pacific Ocean, all the up to a few hundred miles off China’s coast. Not surprisingly this did not sit well with the folks in the CCP, who saw this move as an attempt to undermine the rise of China’s influence in Asia, which is what it was. This foreign policy has played a role in the current tensions with China.
The invasion of Ukraine by Russia took many by surprise, it has also taken focus away from both the Middle East and Asia, and for the first time in over fifteen years America has over one hundred thousand troops stationed in Europe. The American government quickly switched gears and new training initiativesmay indicate that the US military may be preparing for war with Russia. This move may be premature, it was reported this last weekend that Ukrainian forces have driven Russian troops of out Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city. Though this is a small victory for Ukraine, it is significant in that it may show a loss of momentum for the Russian military. The Russian invasion has seemingly had the opposite of the desired effects that Russia wanted. Not only has it been reported that the Russian militaryhas performed poorly, two other Eastern European countries, Finland, and Sweden, have requested to join NATO, and practically all western countries have condemned Russia’s military activity. Many of whom have taken non-military action against Russia.
If the Russian military loses in Ukraine, it wouldn’t make sense for the American military to go to war with Russia, at that point the military would refocus back to China. Recent reports have stated that the CCP still aspires to “reunify” Taiwan and China. There is worry that the Russian invasion could have further embolden China to take Taiwan. Tensions between the US and China has been growing over the independence of Taiwan for over a year.
The US and Japan are reportedly preparing a statement that the two countries will partner together to deter China from taking any military action in Aisa, this all comes ahead of a summit in Japan with the US on May 23rd, 2022. Whether or not China will take military action against Taiwan is up for debate. Regardless,war with China is of great interest to the military industrial complex. If war in Eastern Europe fizzles out there is a good chance that stock loses could happen for major US defense contractors. This means that they will have to find another avenue to make money, or in other words another war to be involved in, but war with China is no guarantee.
Let’s assume for a moment that Ukraine sends Russia packing,and because of this and the US-Japan partnership, China decided to not invade Taiwan. What’s next? Easy, head right on back to the wheelhouse, the Middle East, and Iran will be the big villain to fight. In a recent interview US CENTCOM chief General Erik Kurilla, he said, “The US’s position is that we will not allow a nuclear Iran, however, our concerns about Iran go beyond its nuclear capability,”. Gen. Kurilla also stated that the US is concerned with Iranian backed militias and proxies as well as Iran’s ballistic missile program. The CENTCOM chief promised to show America’s commitment to Suadi Arabia in the coming months and years. This commitment includes the continued American support in the Suadi war against the Houthis in Yemen.
It seems that America is doubling down on its mission to combat Iranian backed groups. Biden is set to announce the deployment of hundreds of special forces troops to Somalia to target leaders of al-Shabab. The US has announced sanctions on the finical networks supporting Hezbollah, and Biden is making a trip to Israel to ensure them of the strategic ties between the two nations. Biden is doing all of this while also trying to revive the Iranian nuclear deal, which seems to contradict the statement made by General Kurilla. Additionally, the US State Department recently tweeted its support of protestors who have taking to the streets to show their resentment of the Iranian government over the rise in food prices.
If stability in the Middle East is the goal, this doesn’t seem to be the way to go about it, reassuring all your allies that you have their best interest in mind while at the same time pursuing the one thing none of them want, a nuclear Iran. America is no stranger to double dealings in the Middle East. The Reagan campaign worked with the Islamic Revolutionaries who would become the Iranian government to hold the sixty-six US hostages until after the 1980 election to hurt incumbent President Jimmy Carter’s chances at re-election. Around six months after the release of the US hostages the US supported Iraq’s in an invasion of Iran, then a decade later the US turned its back to Iraq and then headed a war against them in Kuwait. Double dealings in pretty on par for US foreign policy and that is not going to change under the Biden Administration.
The US is hedging its bets. Iran is not a creditable threat to the United States, and the idea that they are is preposterous. America is not protecting the interests of its Middle Eastern allies by combating Iranian backed groups, we’re only pursuing our own interests, and that is to making money. Rest assured that if war in Eastern Europe and Asia does not pan out, we will redirect our attention back to the Middle East to combat the “great destabilizer” that is Iran. The sales pitch will be the same, Islamic extremists who hate America with weapons of mass destruction, and this time they might actually have nuclear capabilities thanks to the US’s efforts.
Sean Willich is a veteran and an independent writer who writes on American politics and world events. You can find more of his writings on his publication The Semi-Libertarian and you can email him at seantwillich@substack.com.