Two Wars on Two Fronts
America is no stranger to fighting multiple wars at one time, we simultaneously fought wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, all the while having other military operations going throughout the middle east. These wars did not pan out well for the US or the citizens in the countries we occupied, it ended up much worse for many of them, but the one benefit that the US had during these wars was the climates were relatively the same. The US could train all the armed forces members the same and it would be applicable no matter the region service members were sent. This may no longer be the case. It has been reported since the mid 2010’s that US armed forces had started more jungle warfare training. This may be in direct relation to Obama’s “Pacific Pivot”, a foreign policy directive designed to remind China that the US still has a significant role in East Asia.
It was not too long ago that every Neo-Conservative in America was ready for war with China. In 2019 it was reported that the US and ally forces were training for a futuristic war against China. In the last few months of 2021 Neo-Conservatives were ringing the war bells over China’s increased military action around Taiwan, then Russia invaded Ukraine and the whole world seemingly forgot about China and Taiwan. The establishment switched the flavor of the month from China to Russia, and even the military is contemplating refocusing its training.
Recently the US Army has revised it its forces in Alaska in order it better prepare for cold warfare. If approved by Defense Secretary Lloyd this would be a shift in focus from the jungle warfare training. It also may be a sign that the US Armed Forces are preparing for a potential hot conflict in a cold region, I wonder what region they may be preparing for. The US is no stranger to history, they know that armies that have been unprepared for the low temperatures of Russian winters have historically lost, just ask the Germans. For the last few decades America has fought wars in desert climates, a stark difference from the cold Russian climate.
All this focus on Russia and Ukraine has distracted the war hawks in Washington D.C., but this does not totally rule out a hot conflict in East Aisa. With the increase is Chinese military activity around Taiwan it is not far-fetched that war with China is a real possibility. Is war with China over Taiwan really in America’s best interest? The Neo-Conservatives and Neo-Liberals in the US government certainly think so. In October 2021, President Biden vowed to defend Taiwan if China did indeed attack and Senate Republicans pushed a bill in November 2021, to increase military aid for Taiwan’s defenses. It has recently been reported that China is still planning on taking Taiwan which would only increase the pro-war sentiment in Washington.
China may be waiting to see how the US handles the Russian invasion of Ukraine before making any definitive action towards taking Taiwan. Deciding to invade a neighboring country is no simple decision, especially when the world’s largest superpower is vowing to protect them. So, if China does invade Taiwan, it is because they either don’t believe the US’s threats are credible, or they are not concerned with the possibility of war with the US. Either way if China decides to invade Taiwan, they clearly believe the benefits outweigh the costs.
So, it begs the question, is the US willing to fight two very different wars on two very different fronts? I think the military industrial complex is more than willing to do so. Since the invasion of Ukraine, US defense contractors’ stocks have jumped significantly. Lockheed Martin’s stock have risen over 18 percent, and Raytheon’s’ are up almost 8 percent, and that’s just to two of the US’s defense contractors. If the US gets involved in a hot conflict with China, it is likely that they will see even higher stock prices. When it comes to Ukraine there is nothing for the US to gain by getting involved, so the reasoning for getting involved is old establishment trope “it’s a threat to western democracy”. Though the US’s reasoning for getting involved in a conflict with China over Taiwan is far more economic.
The small island of Taiwan has an impressive $600 billion GDP, which if that comes under the control of China will only strengthen their economy. Additionally, Taiwan is the US’s tenth largest trade partner who the US relies heavily on for semiconductors and computer chips. Taiwanese company TSMC has control of 55 percent of the semiconductor manufacturing market. If China controls that market it would be a huge blow to US electronics manufactures. China’s state council stated that they wanted to grow their domestic semiconductor industry by 20% each year from 2015 to 2020, but it was reported earlier this year that China’s semiconductor manufacturing market is well behind the goals the state council had set. So, acquiring Taiwan’s market share would help fix this setback as well as aid China’s belt and road initiative. Additionally, it would make the US beholden to China for latest semiconductors.
So, would fighting two wars in two different regions against two of the world’s largest superpowers really be in Americas best interest? No. Especially when you consider the friendly relationship between China and Russia. It is not a far-fetched idea that if the US got involved in a war with Russia and China simultaneously, a military alliance would be formed between the two countries. Now I don’t mean to sound pessimistic, but if I was going to bake a cake and call it World War III, those would be the ingredients I need. Getting into wars with Russia and China is certainly not in America’s best interest, or the worlds best interest. It could potentially lead to millions of people dead, destroyed countries, and a potential nuclear war. It would be in America’s best interest to remove itself from these foreign conflicts, focus it’s time and money on bring back jobs, bolstering its domestic semiconductor production so it can stop relying on foreign countries, fighting inflation, bringing down gas prices, and making life better for the average American. Unfortunately, at the end of the day the US Federal Government doesn’t have America’s best interest in mind.
Sean Willich is a veteran and an independent writer who writes on American politics and world events. You can find more of his writings on his publication The Semi-Libertarian and you can email him at seantwillich@substack.com.